In this update from the European Tyre & Rubber Manufacturers Association:
- Quarterly Tyre Market Review
- EU27+UK Tyre Imports
- Focus on Passenger Mobility Trends
- Used Tyres Generated in Europe
In this update from the European Tyre & Rubber Manufacturers Association:
Discover Astutus Research VKMT.
Perfect storm buffeting Europe’s PCLT tire manufacturing starting to ease in 2023
In the second half of 2022, a perfect storm of significantly lower freight costs and high European energy costs negatively impacted the relative competitiveness of ‘domestic’ PCLT tire production compared to PCLT tire imports from Asia. However recent movements in forward costs of energy look set to offer some relief.
Spot rates for container freight from Asia fell sharply in 2022, particularly between late June and December, making imported tires more attractive.
Gas prices began to climb sharply from June 2022, peaking in August. They remained elevated over the rest of the year, impacting the competitiveness of tire production in Europe.
Since March 2022, cumulative PCLT tire imports have been above the equivalent period of 2019, with a more substantial increase since June.
According to data compiled by Astutus Research, by the end of 2022 cumulative PCLT tire imports to Europe* were up around 8% year on year, and almost 6% higher than the same period in 2019.
The end of European imports of tires from Russia in July has resulted in a reduction in supply of around 6 million units in the second half of 2022 (principally Nokian and Pirelli). There was some stock building (principally by Nokian) prior to July, resulting in a spike in imports from Russia in June. Pirelli has stated that it has replaced Russian volumes in Europe with production in Romania and imports from Turkey. In 2023 there will be a shortfall of over 12 million tires from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus compared with the pre-invasion total in 2021.
Astutus Research believe that some tires that would previously have been exported from Asia to Russia, are instead being sold in Europe. Whilst European imports from China have increased, they have also risen significantly from Korea and Japan. European imports from Korea rose by 20% in 2022, an increase of over 3 million units. Volumes from Japan rose by 1.5 million units, or 28%. Companies such as Toyo, SRI, Yokohama, Hankook, Nexen and Kumho have traditionally been amongst the major importers to Russia. Japan and Korea have together typically sold 5 to 6 million units per year into the country.
*EU-27 plus UK. Astutus Research combines statistics from Eurostat and HMRC in the UK to show consistent data for the period before and after the UK exited the European Union.
The latest Astutus Research briefing, “Supply Dynamics in the European PCLT Tire Industry to 2028” is now available.
European PCLT tire imports are now above pre-pandemic levels
Serbia has replaced Russia as the fourth largest source of PCLT tire imports, with volumes forecast to increase further with the recent opening of two new plants.
Disruption to PCLT tire production in Europe from gas rationing would result in greater reliance on imports.
Since March, European* cumulative PCLT tire imports have, for the first time, recovered to run above pre-pandemic levels. This is despite the well-documented impact of sharply higher ocean freight costs in this period, and disruption to production in some source countries.
A newly published report by Astutus Research, “European PCLT Tire Demand and Supply Forecasts to 2026”, shows that in the first seven months of 2022, European (EU-27 plus UK) imports from outside the region were 11% higher than the same period last year and 5% higher than the equivalent pre-Covid period in 2019.
Russia was the fourth most important source of European (EU-27+UK) PCLT tires in 2021, representing over 11 million units (7.5%), with a further 1 million units coming from Ukraine and Belarus. In the first half of 2022, Russian tires accounted for over 6.3% of imports, over 5 million tires. The EU banned tire shipments from Russia effective July 10th. Stock-building ahead of this deadline resulted in Russia accounting for almost 10% of imports in June.
Despite the actions of several multinational tire companies to stop or limit production in Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, PCLT tire production in the country was down just 8% in the first half of 2022. However, in July and August output fell by almost 40%. Excluded from its key export market, and with lower domestic demand, Astutus forecasts that tire production is expected to remain depressed for the remainder of 2022 and through 2023.
Serbia replaced Russia as the fourth largest source of PCLT tire imports in 2022, accounting for 6.5% of supply between January and July. Michelin’s plant in Serbia was previously a significant supplier to Russia and with this trade halted it will be looking to divert output to other markets, potentially including the EU.
Serbian exports to Europe are now set to increase significantly. Goodyear now controls the former Cooper Tire plant in the country, which is undergoing a significant expansion of capacity. Furthermore, Linglong of China and Japan’s Toyo Tire have recently begun production at their new plants in Serbia. For Linglong, this will replace imports from China and Thailand. Toyo tire intends to use the plant to supply Europe, freeing up capacity at its plants in Malaysia and Japan, and also to export tires from the facility to North America.
For PCLT tire manufacturers with plants in Europe, a key risk in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 is the potential for disruption to supplies of energy. In particular, as a result of the cut in supplies from Russia, there is the prospect of rationing gas for industrial users. Such a scenario is more likely if there was a cold snap. Amongst the tire-producing nations, the most at risk are Germany and Italy but other countries could be affected directly or indirectly. And whilst the leading manufacturers target ‘local for local’ supply of PCLT tires, a significant interruption to tire production could necessitate bringing in additional tires from their plants in other regions.
*EU-27 plus UK. Astutus Research combines statistics from Eurostat and HMRC in the UK to show consistent data for the period before and after the UK exited the European Union.
Potential demand for new cars has made a surprisingly strong recovery following the precipitous declines in 2020. Government policies have supported incomes in many markets and the predicted large scale increases in unemployment have not materialised. Furthermore, as some commuters have attempted to avoid public transport because of safety concerns, car-usage has recovered far faster than demand for public transport.
New car sales have in fact been limited by supply rather than demand. A shortage of components, particularly semi-conductors, has reverberated through the automotive sector. Vehicle manufacturers have had to reduce shifts and idle plants resulting in a significant loss in vehicle production. The impact was felt particularly sharply in the third quarter of 2021, but it is expected to continue well into 2022. A rebound in vehicle production and sales is expected from 2023 to 2025, based on the release of pent-up demand, positively affecting the OE tire segment.
This year, however, the result has been lower than expected original equipment passenger car and light truck (PCLT) tire sales. According to new data from Astutus Research this will represent a loss in revenues of over US$2 billion for the global tire manufacturers. North America accounts for the largest share of this lost value – reflecting both the significant disruption to vehicle production, and the high average price of tires compared to other world regions. This is a result of the mix effect, with a far greater share of high rim diameter tires. Europe accounts for almost 30% of the lost value globally, with a further 27% in the Asia Pacific region. The low share of lost revenues in South America and the Middle East Africa region is a result of the lower volumes of vehicle assembled in these regions, combined with lower tire average selling prices.
A recovery in light vehicle production from 2022 (and particularly 2023 and beyond), when combined with a positive mix effect, should give a substantial boost to OE tire revenues over the next few years.
Data from Eurostat and HMRC compiled by Astutus Research shows that passenger car and light truck (PCLT) tire imports into Europe* declined by 20% in the first eight months of 2020, a reduction of over 20 million units.
For the first time, China accounted for more than half of all PCLT tires entering the region.
In relative terms, Russia was the best performing of the major import sources, with volumes declining by just 2%. The weakness of the Russian ruble aided its cost competitiveness.
Korean imports fell by 35%, in part resulting from Nexen’s substitution of imports with local production as it ramps up supply from its plant in the Czech Republic.
Tire trade will be further disrupted by the second wave of Covid-19 infections currently impacting numerous Europe countries. Additionally, the United States government is currently considering duties on PCLT tire imports from certain countries which, if enacted, could have a secondary impact on European sourcing in 2021.
In the first eight months of 2019, the then 28 nations of the European Union imported 105 million passenger car and light truck (PCLT) tires from outside the region. With the coronavirus pandemic having a major impact on tire demand and, to varying degrees disrupting production, the EU-27 and the United Kingdom together imported 21 million fewer tires in the corresponding period of 2020, a reduction of 20%.
Each month of 2020 has seen a year-on-year decline in PCLT tire imports, with a near 50% reduction in May and a fall of 45% in June. Declines in July and August were sequentially smaller, and by the final month for which official statistics are available, the reduction was just 12%.
Whilst there has been a reduction in the volume of PCLT tire imports to Europe from each of the leading source countries, there are significant differences in relative performance. The share of PCLT tires from China increased despite unit volumes falling by 15.6%. For the first time, China accounted for more than half of total PCLT tire volumes imported into the region.
Russia significantly outperformed, with imports to Europe declining by just 2%. The country became the fourth largest source, surpassing Serbia. Several manufacturers now export tires from their plants in Russia, led by Nokian and Pirelli and aided by the relative weakness of the Russian ruble.
By contrast imports from South Korea and the ASEAN region have declined significantly more sharply than the market. Korea has seen a 35% reduction in PCLT tire units in the first eight months of 2020, falling to third place behind Turkey. Imports from Korea were impacted by the ramp-up of production at Nexen’s new plant in the Czech Republic which has allowed it to substitute some imports with locally sourced tires. Imports from the ASEAN countries declined by 31% compared with 2019 although, within this total, volumes from Thailand and Vietnam fell more sharply whilst the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia performed better.
Numerous European nations have imposed restrictions on their citizen’s activity and movement as part of their efforts to combat a second wave of Covid-19; this is now expected to delay the recovery of tire demand in the fourth quarter. The global trade in PCLT tires could be further disrupted in 2021 if the United States Department of Commerce decides to impose duties on subject tires from Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, and Taiwan. The US imported 85 million PCLT tires from these countries in 2019; manufacturers and importers would likely adjust their sourcing patterns in such an eventuality, with a secondary impact on the European market.
*Data for 2019 refers to the 28 nations of the European Union. For 2020 we maintain the same scope, that is EU-27 plus the United Kingdom.